Saturday, November 5, 2011

NFL 2nd Quarter Review: AFC

Finally... the reports for the AFC have arrived. Without further delay, here is what you're looking for. Expect another report after Week 12.

AFC East

Buffalo 5-2 (+1) PF 211 PA 147 Div 1-0 Conf 3-1

Analysis: So the Bills managed two firsts in Week 8. They won their first game in Toronto and Redskins coach Mike Shanahan gets blanked for the first time in his career (23-0). And thanks to their winning ways this quarter, it looks like Andrew Luck won't be picked #1 by the Bills. Especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick with his 1st half performance (67.7% completions, 1739 yds and 14 tds) earning him $59 million over 6 years.

Next 4 weeks: NYJ (4-3), @DAL (3-4), @MIA (0-7), @NYJ (4-3)

What to expect: Again, the Bills had a good second quarter. But with the Patriots nipping at their heels in the standings, and facing the unpredictable Jets twice in this coming quarter, their lead looks like it's going to disappear. One loss against the Cowboys and/or Dolphins could mean the same thing. 3 out of their last 4 on the road will be a true test.

New England 5-2 (+1) PF 202 PA 160 Div 2-1 Conf 4-2

Analysis: The only reason why the Pats are in second place is because of their head-to-head loss earlier this season (31-34). Their only hiccup against the Steelers in Week 8 (17-25) also put them where they are today. If Tom Brady can improve some in the 3rd quarter (75-109 passing, 808 yds, 5 tds and 3 int (2nd qtr)). However, being ranked 2nd in QBR (104.4), Brady won't need much more improvement.

Next 4 weeks: NYG (5-2), @NYJ (4-3), KC (4-3), @PHI (3-4)

What to expect: When your defense is dead last in passing yards allowed (323.1), it helps to keep your opponents in the game. In their 5 wins this season, their average margin of victory is 10.6 points. But the Pats opponents have scored under 20 points only twice this season (Raiders 19 (Week 4), Cowboys 16 (Week 7)). If Brady can keep his offense on the field against these heavyweights, the defense will improve.

NY Jets 4-3 (+1) PF 100 PA 95 Div 1-1 Conf 3-3

Analysis: When they are home, the Jets are hard to beat. Just ask the Dolphins on Monday Night (24-6) and the Chargers (came from behind 27-21). But when it comes to away games, they have lost all three games by average of 12 points. This doesn't bode well for their 3rd quarter if things don't improve...NOW!!!

Next 4 weeks: @BUF (5-2), NE (5-2), @DEN (2-5), BUF (5-2)

What to expect: Somewhere in this schedule, the Jets can drop its first home game this season against either of their division foes. If they can't get a win against the Broncos in Week 11, then you can expect them to be fighting pretty hard to get that last Wild Card spot.

Miami 0-7 (-3) PF 107 PA 166 Div 0-2 Conf 0-6

Analysis: If Dolphins fans are surprised that Tony Sparano still has his job, don't be. The most likely scenario would be if the Phins lost their 9th game, expect an interim coach to be named. Usually when someone says that the offense hasn't lost a step, it's a compliment. But with Chad Henne (64-122 passing, 868 yds 4 tds and 4 ints) and Matt Moore (68-115 passing, 706 yds, 1 td and 4 ints) at the helm this season, the fans of South Beach are going to be looking forward to 2012.

Next 4 weeks: @KC (4-3), WAS (3-4), BUF (5-2),@DAL (3-4)

What to expect: At this pace, the Dolphins can pull off one or two wins this quarter. But maybe that's just wishful thinking. It's possible only if the front office believes the future is now. Can you imagine Andrew Luck in a Dolphins uni? All signs point to yes.

AFC North

Pittsburgh 6-2 (+4) PF 176 PA 139 Div 0-1 Conf 4-2

Analysis: Ever since that loss to Houston (17-10) to close the 1st quarter, the Steel Curtain has been on a roll. The Black and Gold have outscored their opponents 112-67 while only forcing 2 turnovers. Looks like they are in midseason form.

Next 4 weeks: BAL (5-2), @CIN (5-2), BYE, @KC (4-3)

What to expect: This weekend's rematch versus the Ravens will be epic. So will next week at the Bengals. If the Steelers are going to keep their AFC crown, they will need to keep up the good work. And with the Ravens slipping up and the young Bengals, the Steel City has a shot. By the way, don't sleep on the Chiefs.

Cincinnati 5-2 (+3) PF 171 PA 123 Div 1-0 Conf 4-1

Analysis: After winning only 4 games all of last year, who would've thought the Bengals would be in the thick of the AFC North. Ever since their last single digit win over the Bills (23-20), the Bengals have dominated their last three opponents (10 point victories over the Jaguars and Colts and by 12 points over Seattle).

Next 4 weeks: @TEN (4-3), PIT (6-2), @BAL (5-2) , CLE (3-4)

What to expect: The Bengals have some new blood and it has definitely shown in the 1st half. But with the Titans and their divisional opponents upcoming, their team chemistry will be put to the test. Even with the new look Browns coming to town.
Baltimore 5-2 (+1) PF 185 PA 110 Div 1-0 Conf 3-2

Analysis: Yes, Joe Flacco has thrown 6 interceptions and his QBR is 75.4 in the first half. But the Ravens are still winning games this season. Flacco has thrown for 1751 yards and 8 touchdowns. On the plus side, their defense has allowed the least amount of points and are 3rd in both passing (174.1) and rushing yards (89.1) allowed.

Next 4 weeks: @PIT (6-2), @SEA (2-5), CIN (5-2), SF (6-1)

What to expect: To anyone who questions Flacco's performance in the first half of this season, might be in for a real shock. He may not be in the class of Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning, but if he can build on his performance against the Cardinals in week 8 (31-51 passing for 331 yards), the Ravens will be in the Super Bowl. But will the D' hold up against the Steelers, Bengals and 49ers? I'm pretty sure they are.


Cleveland 3-4 (-1) PF 107 PA 140 Div 0-1 Conf 2-3

Analysis: Just when everyone thought the drama was over... think again. Peyton Hillis, who was the Browns leading rusher (1171 yds rushing 4.4 ypc, 11 tds) has been looking like a flash in the pan in 4 games this season (60 carries, 211 yds, 2 tds). But Hillis is not the only problem. Their passing offense is not doing so hot itself (218.1 ypg (20th)). The defense has done good, but if the offense can't get its running game going, it's going to be along 2nd half for them.

Next 4 weeks: @HOU (5-3), STL (1-6), JAX (2-6), @CIN (5-2)

What to expect: With everything that has been happening to the Browns this season. Former Big 12 rival Sam Bradford and the Rams pay a visit to the Dawg Pound for a clash with Colt McCoy. Other than that, not much going on.

AFC South

Houston 5-3 (Even) PF 206 PA 145 Div 3-0 Conf 5-2

Analysis: Despite losing Mario Williams for the season with a pectoral tear and Andre Johnson out another week with his hamstring, the Texans could've done worst. With Arian Foster and Ben Tate combining for 1040 yards rushing, the offense is clicking. Despite missing Williams and Danieal Manning most of this quarter, the new 3-4 defense has allowed 189.4 yards passing (5th), 97.4 yards rushing (6th) and 18.1 points per game.

Next 4 weeks: CLE (3-4), @TB (4-3), BYE, @JAX (2-6)

What to expect: Looks like a pretty favorable start for the 2nd half of the season. But Texan fans know that things can turn badly in a flash. As long as they don't get snake bitten with any more key injuries, the Texans can maintain momentum and keep their grip on the division lead.

Tennessee 4-3 (-1) PF 139 PA 145 Div 1-2 Conf 4-3

Analysis: Having the worst rushing offense in the NFL (68.9 yds) and anyone can see why the Titans have lost badly this past quarter (21 to Pittsburgh and 34 to Houston). But to still be one game over .500 and half a game back division leader Houston tells the story of the AFC South. With their win over the winless Colts, will that be the turning point?

Next 4 weeks: CIN (5-2), @CAR (2-6), @ATL (4-3), TB (4-3)

What to expect: There might be a couple of winnable games in this stretch...but who's it going to be? If the ground game doesn't get its act together, then all four of those teams will run the scoreboard on the Titans.

Jacksonville 2-6 (-2) PF 98 PA 163 Div 1-1 Conf 2-4

Analysis: Somehow, the Jaguars have won 2 games in the first half of the season. They have scored an average of 14 points in their victories. But they've allowed over 20.4 points this season. And the sad reality is that the Jags have only score 20 points only once this season (loss to Cincinnati 30-20 in Week 5). At this rate, it looks like there's gonna be a shakeup in Jacksonville.

Next 4 weeks: BYE, @IND (0-8), @CLE (3-4), HOU (5-3)

What to expect: If it weren't for the St. Louis Rams (87 points), the Jags would be in a world of hurt. But they could be worse off if they come off the bye week and give the Colts their first win. That would be the beginning of the end when they face the Browns and Texans.

Indianapolis 0-8 (-4) PF 121 PA 252 Div 0-2 Conf 0-6

Analysis: Yep, this looks like a team that is desperate for Peyton Manning. The fact that Curtis Painter has thrown for 1123 yards this season, the Colts should've won a game or two. Especially against Kansas City in week 5 (24-28).

Next 4 weeks: ATL (4-3), JAX (2-6), BYE, CAR (2-6)

What to expect: To be optimistic as humanly possible, the Colts could pull a couple of wins in this upcoming quarter. Don't count on them beating the Falcons. Either the anemic Jaguar offense or the young Panthers will possibly give the Colts their first victory. Well maybe.

AFC West

Kansas City 4-3 (+3) PF 128 PA 170 Div 2-1 Conf 3-2

Analysis: Welcome back to the top of the division. After knocking off the Vikings (22-17) to close out the 1st quarter, the Chiefs have reeled off a 4 game win streak to vault them back to legitimacy. With Jamaal Charles out for the season, Dexter McCluster and Jackie Battle have combined for 512 yards to help answer the call.

Next 4 weeks: MIA (0-7), DEN (2-5), @NE (5-2), PIT (6-2)

What to expect: With the way the Chiefs are playing, this upcoming 3rd quarter looks like a split. Which translates into Todd Haley shaving his beard after the New England game. But with the way they are playing, the Chiefs could go undefeated this time around.
San Diego 4-3 (-1) PF 161 PA 159 Div 2-1 Conf 3-3

Analysis: If the Bolts have any consolation, it's the fact that they're losing now instead of later on December like they have for the past few seasons. Philip Rivers (64.5 completions 2084 yds and 7 tds) would be more impressive if he didn't have 11 interceptions. But if the Chargers don't find a way to limit their opponents on the ground (117.7 yards, 17th in NFL), then you could expect the much of the same thing to happen in the 3rd quarter.

Next 4 weeks: GB (7-0), OAK (4-3), @CHI (4-3), DEN (2-5)

What to expect: If Charger fans thought the last quarter was tough, this one doesn't get any better. The toughest game may not be the undefeated Packers. It could be the Raiders, but highly unlikely. Going to Chicago in late November would be the obvious choice. But the Broncos could prove to be the biggest pest later on. Assuming Tim Tebow hit his stride.

Oakland 4-3 (+1) PF 160 PA 178 Div 1-1 Conf 4-3

Analysis: No one expected the Raiders to be in a three way battle for the AFC West. Especially with the injury bug hitting Jason Campbell (collarbone) and Darren McFadden (foot), the offense now turns to former Bengals Carson Palmer and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. But their biggest concern is the defense allowing over 20 points in every game but one this season (win over the Browns 24-17 in week 6).

Next 4 weeks: DEN (2-5), @SD (4-3), @MIN (2-6), CHI (4-3)

What to expect: It wouldn't be a stretch to say the Raiders might split this schedule. But if Palmer and Houshmandzadeh rekindle their magic like they did in Cincinnati, expect the Raiders to run the table this quarter. Might sound like more than a stretch, but you never know.


Denver 2-5 (-1) PF 133 PA 200 Div 0-2 Conf 2-3

Analysis: Tim Tebow's mechanic issues are really beginning to rear its ugly head in the Mile High City. The energy level is up, but the winning percentage is not. That's not the only thing that is plaguing the Broncos. The running game has done good (125.9 yds, 8th), but the passing game (179.6 yds, 30th) needs to be their saving grace if they are going to win out.
Next 4 weeks: @OAK (4-3), @KC (4-3), NYJ (4-3), @SD (4-3)

What to expect: Von Miller 6 sacks (8th in NFL) are being overshadowed by the team's inability to win. Looks like they have their pick of which 4-3 team to start improving the Broncos' future. With 3 out of 4 games within their division, it's more likely to be one of them.

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